Afghanistan Pakistan peace in sight

Pakistan was one country that raised its voice against the opposition to the set in Kabul with Tajik minority being in charge of the government. Pakistan was very emphatic that the majority Pashtoon should be in charge of Kabul since Pakistan supported the Pashtoon Taliban. Most of the participants marginalized Pakistan’s concerns and point of view. Another topic Pakistan showed its strong reservations on was the issue of the millions of Afghan refugees and Iran supported this stance because between Islamabad and Tehran there were close to four million Afghan refugees in both countries and at Bonn all the leading participants decided that this issue is of no great importance. The majority of the conference participants motioned that the refugees should remain under the mandate of UNHCR. After 17 years, the consequences emanated from this unresolved matter had real detrimental consequences.

Fast-forward to January 2018, President Trump on the first day of the New Year tweets the following:

The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies & deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools,

Looking at this sweeping statement, it is clear that President Trump is very frustrated about 17-year-old war in Afghanistan. Because of some abject policy failures, the President decides to use Pakistan as the scapegoat for all the ills and failures of the U.S in Afghanistan.

As the accusations started to pile, one of the most scathing point that the Obama and Trump Administrations have used against Pakistan and its military provided safe heaven to the Afghan Taliban who is fighting ISAF. The infamous Quetta Shura based in the south Western City of Quetta has been declared the hub for all militant or terrorist activities in Afghanistan.

Quetta is the provisional capital of Baluchistan. It is the largest province in Pakistan in land area; however, it has been void of any civic development. One of the main arteries from Chaman, Afghanistan to Quetta is National Highway 25, which covers 12 kilometers. During the War with Soviets in the 1980’s Quetta was one of the main hubs for Afghan refuge was to settle near the designated campsites near Quetta. In, 2004 there were close to 1.67 million Afghan refugees living in campsites in and around Quetta. While these refugees started to settle they took a posture that they intended to live as refugees for a long time. They began to subdivide the campsites and gave their own names to these campsites and started to build them with mud and cement rather than living in tent cities. Names given were Hazara Town, Jungle Bagh, Ghausabad , Saranan Camp, Killi Kamalo, Zamindar Colony, Bashir Chowk . One issue that imposed restrictions on the refugees were the local Pakistani authorities orders to arrest and interview any refugee for violating the local laws. Some of the Afghans were known to be involved in drug and human trafficking. Amongst these criminals were members of Taliban leadership who used the UNHCR mandate of immunity of non-violent crimes. These Taliban flourished under this environment, knowing that UNHCR laws for limited legal immunity bound the local Pakistani authorities. It was clear that the former Taliban Chief Mullah Umar took a similar route from Afghanistan to Pakistan. He settled in Karachi’s Maleer Town in the Khokarapar Council area. He resided in a room (classroom) of an abandoned government public school. He was regularly treated for dialysis and other medical conditions at a private hospital. The area he lived his final days, initially, he was seen walking along with three or four Taliban fighters and regularly visited an Afghan food establishment named called Nafees Baloch Hotel. Besides this there have been quite a few other factors that represent that Deash supporters have started to settle in Karachi. There two case in points: The terrorist group of mostly educated (meaning members have engineering degrees and tend to come from all walks of life and almost everywhere in Pakistan and even Afghanistan) is the Ansarul Shariah e Pakistan that has been involved in killing of police personals in Karachi. Yet another group that has been an offshoot of Therek e Taliban is Jama ul, Ahrar On July 23, 2018, at an election rally of Baluchistan Awami Party popular leader Mr. Siraj Raisani during the campaign in the city of Mustang, Baluchistan province, Pakistan, Hafiz Nawaz blew himself up who standing amongst the crowd of 500 people exploded himself. This explosion instantly killed Mr. Raisani along with 230 others with more than 300 injured. Jama ul, Ahrar’s foot soldier named Hafiz Nawaz .In 2008 after the Government of Pakistan initiated an Operation to search and destroy TTP hold in Swat area which is close to 120 km north of the Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan. He [Hafeez) moved to Karachi after his outfit was defeated and he escaped along with his father and younger brother to Karachi. Hafiz Nawaz a resident of Abbottabad had conducted this act of terror, when he blew himself up during a political rally in . The Hafeez Nawaz along with hisfather and younger brother had joined the Jama ul Ahrara; all of them belonged to North Waziristan .which is an offshoot of now defeated the tehrik –e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Also since Jama ul, Ahrar broke off from TTP, and they have joined or gave its allegiance to the Islami State (ISL) or Daesh. Hafiz Nawaz was part of illegal religious Seminary (Madarssa) based in Gulshan e Iqbal block 6 Karachi, Pakistan. In 2008 after the Government of Pakistan initiated an Operation to search and destroy TTP hold in Swat area which is close to 120 km north of the Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan. He moved to Karachi after his outfit was defeated and he escaped along with his father and younger brother to Karachi. On July 23, 2018. At a Baluchistan Awami Party popular leader Mr. Siraj Raisani during the campaign in the city of Mustang, Baluchistan province, Pakistan, Hafiz Nawaz blew himself up who standing amongst the crowd of 500 people exploded himself. This explosion instantly killed Mr. Raisani along with 230 others with more than 300 injured. The facts remains all of these splinter groups of TTP have somehow morphed into ISIS and Daesh in a commons connectivity way.

The most dangerous issue in Afghanistan is the unabated production of opium and its export. This is the commodity that fueled the Taliban fighting machine and now the Diash has started to take this lucrative trade to fuel its own agenda.

As one could see by the chart, the cultivation of opium has increased exponentially as indicated by UNODC. The cultivation actually skyrocketed during the occupation by US and NATO forces. These figures also fuel suspicion that the US and NATO forces are secretly involved in drug trade and one of the reasons that they want to prolong their stay in Afghanistan. Again the next chart actually depicts the flow of Afghan opium to the rest of the world. Once again, the blame comes on the U.S. and NATO forces for looking the other way while the drugs and human trafficking statistics increase.

Since the U.S started to use aerial bombing to destroy the local Taliban sanctuaries; the Taliban vacated these places but they have been occupied by the Islamic State/Deash people. These Deash unfortunately have found help and accommodations by the warlords like Abdul Rashid Dostum. In the below image In this photo Afghani senior Vice President Bdul Rashid Dostom (National Islamic Movement of Afghanistan – is next to Mufti Niamat the leader of The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant – ad-Dawlah al-Islāmiyah fī ‘l-ʿIrāq wa-sh-Shām – Wilayah Khorasan ) Khorasan Province. There has been news that both Nimat and Dostom have attacked villages that have been vacated by the Taliban (Pushtoon) and have Shia Afghani populace.

Bringing peace and stability, there are lessons to be learned. First and foremost the shifting of the blame should not be used by anymore to move forward. The US certainly has failed in many aspects to bring peace and stability to the region: the notion that the U.S is an honest broker is not acceptable to any party.The people in Washington must accept and understand that Afghan lives matter! The regional players and their reservations should not be marginalized with the theme like “the only good Taliban is a dead one” and rhetoric stating that failure in Afghanistan means the nuclear weapons of Pakistan are in danger of getting into the hands of terrorists. Looking at the bigger picture, it would be safe to assume that Afghanistan is fast becoming the next staging ground and home base for Daesh/ISIS. With Daesh’s Syrian home base dismantled and destroyed the fighters have started to disperse through the porous borders of Syria, Iraq, Iran into Afghanistan and other Muslim majority countries. With Iran supporting its brand of Shia Proxies like Hizbullah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and other small groups in Afghanistan, Egypt, Pakistan, and North Africa. The threat of violent extremism is not going away but rather will increase in the future. There is no shortage of disgruntled and poor young Muslims who are willing to go and indulge in these violent activities for $75 a month plus a piece of land in Afghanistan, Iran, and their divinely-ordained paradise in the future. The famous cliché for these extremists was once described as “…for an American and NATO Soldier…the tour of duty ends but for these violent extremists the tour never ends but at the gates of Paradise.” American Afghan policy is schatered policy with no one cohesive point to move forward.

For the US, as stated in the quarterly reports of the Special Inspector general Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), concludes that we have used excessive air power in Afghanistan and have only inflicted misery and destruction over the people of Afghanistan. This type of policy does not gain any goodwill nor it makes ways to bring peace. The Taliban (Pashtoon) is a ground reality of Afghanistan. The nature of Pashtoon is that they are very independent and proud group of people. For centuries, they have thwarted outside aggression and stuck to their own mindset. They have yet again proven this. They have created a stalemate with the strongest power in the world. Recently, the US has started direct talks with the Taliban in Doha, Qatar. Talking to them is like walking on eggshells, the approach should be one of caution and maturity. Both sides need to refrain from making derogatory statements about each other. In the past, the US did embark on these types of talks but took action that stopped the processes. Similar UAV assassination of Taliban leadership like that of Mullah Mansoor is counterproductive to future peace processes. After talking with U.S counterpart in Doha, Qatar on his return to Pakistan via Iran, Mansoor was killed by a US Drone in the border region between Iran and Pakistan. Secretary of State Kerry called him “an enemy of our partners and US personnel” well, why not arrest him when he was at CENTCOM base having talks with US representatives rather than killing him in Pakistan? Headlines like these sow the seeds of distrust in the US as a diplomatic body with factions in Afghanistan.

Blaming Pakistan and other nations for the shortcomings in Afghanistan is not conducive to a world leadership position for the US to achieve a lasting peace and genuine stability the US must look inwards to for guidance. It has been seventeen years and close to one trillion dollars spent there must be accountability for this policy disaster. Policy makers and military leaders at the four-, three-, and two-star level over three administrations are responsible for the failures in strategy and operational approach in Afghanistan. They did not stick to what was working, operated conventionally in an unconventional environment, endorsed failed operational constructs and have abandoned operational constructs that worked in order to go back to a kinetic, top-down driven approach that has produced failure not only in Afghanistan but in Iraq and Syria. They kept making a disingenuous statement to appease the public and lawmakers. There has been zero accountability for the senior leadership responsible for the missteps. Further, poor diplomacy and administration, as well as the poor organization of the political and military effort in Afghanistan, has resulted in a lack of unity of command and purpose, which created an unstable political and military environment which includes ineffective Afghan ministries, military, and police. These, along with many other policy mishaps have to lead to the Taliban negotiating from a position of strength. The abject failure of the governance from Kabul has to lead to one disaster after another. The Polity in Kabul is more based on ethnic minority rather having majority rule. These minorities have been only getting money from the U.S and they have not proposed national reconciliation to bring ground level peace and stability. Directing the local policy from outside without knowing is how the local customs and nuances operate. Looking the other way when dealing with the drug problem. Eradicating and destroying the farmer’s sole livelihood will not make the global problem go away.

The U.S relationship is at w same stage as it was in 1990. The U.S wrongly thinks by insulting Pakistan and cutting off relationship with will force them to adhere to the U.S even though it might be not suitable for Pakistan. Recently in Pakistan withdrew its Navy from the Combines Task Force citing US-led coalition limits fuel supplies.

Pre-2001 Afghanistan was the epicenter amongst the violent extremist Muslims to gather. Now it is returning to a similar environment. Lack of local governance has to lead the locals to rely on outside help and ideology to get some type of peace and stability. The U.S and NATO have so far failed to provide this. The present policy of using B-52, B-1 dropping such as mother of all the bombs have not helped but rather ingrained in most Afghan are that the US is not there to help but kill. In January 2002, Pew Research had taken a poll in Afghanistan asking if the locals knew why the US and ISAF are in Afghanistan 92% said no and close to 96% didn’t know of the terrorist events of 9/11. In essence, the local Afghani populace is more or less ambivalent as to why were they attack and ponder the reasons these Western soldiers walk in their villages to search for Taliban. The U.S has spent almost a trillion in Afghanistan without much to show of

Move forward. The peace and stability in Afghanistan is number one issues for the Afghani themselves and the people who live in the proximity. For the U.S there are several challenges associated with the region. Number one is to withdraw from Afghanistan, therefore saving a significant amount in the taxpayers and lives of Americans, however giving a timeline is nothing short of suicide for the U.S and the region To achieve and other multiple tasks the U.S can not and should not move alone and by itself. As there is a paradigm shift in affairs of the regions there are other major players who have started to assert themselves as power brokers and would like act as stabilizers that are Russia, China, and Iran along with Pakistan. The later plays a significant part in this ball game. Pakistan’s geostrategic dynamics have changed significantly since the fateful days of May 1998 when it exploded five nuclear devices in response to its adversity India an a few weeks earlier. The misnomer that Pakistan needed Afghanistan as its strategic depth land has been trumped by the capacity and ability to deploy nuclear weapons to deter India from overwhelming and defeating its military.

Both Pakistan and Afghanistan are to have strong and viable bilateral talks with all concerned groups in Afghanistan; the relationship between these countries is a classic example of commons connectivity. To achieve peace and stability in the region; These talks must be bilateral without any third party dictation or interference. The confidence developing measure must be established. The commons connectivity amongst people of Afghanistan and Pakistan is of unique nature in the world. Their heritage, creed, and customary norms are unmatched and nothing short of tragedy of the commons.

The first step both the countries need to finalize and the Demarcation of the border. The Durand line is the most artificially created borderline by the British Raj. The usual colonialist to screw up the border between two countries just before they leave Durand is very strange the British divided the border in a very strange manner whilst not considering that people and families are getting divided. They are several examples of this the border between India and Pakistan, and China and India. It should be noted that Pakistan and China did agree on borders between their respected country near Kashmir along with Pakistan and Iran. This measure would reap exponential benefits. This would increase the people to people movement.
The government of Imran Khan has already suggested that they would allow the Afghan refugees born in Pakistan be given Pakistani citizenship along with Bengali, and Myanmar. This is a remarkable unilateral step by Islamabad. The entry and exit control should be based on an electronic system like biometric system or even facial reconization technology. Having a joint intelligence coordination system that has open lines to assess and analyze intelligence that could harm both the countries. Establish a Joint Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance body (JISRB) body. Where all of the information of the designated area of interest is shared and assessed. This measure would help them [Afghanistan and Pakistani forces) make well-informed, timely and accurate decisions.
Both the countries are required to ensure that there are borders operate in the cohesion of management and mitigation working within JISRB.
The U.S and other countries are invited to monitor and address any potential threats to JISRB
The crux o JISRB and other security measures are that the sovereign territory of both the countries is never compromised by either of the partners and are used in any form by non-state actors to launch armed attacks anywhere in the world.
amongst the greatest commons connectivity is the constitution of both Afghanistan and Pakistan. From their preamble and a lot of articles have a lot in commons? Using the constitution of both the countries the religious scholars along with governments in Kabul and Islamabad should be able to develop some type of harmony amongst the two countries. The religious scholars would be able to bridge the gap between different sects amongst the Muslims and even ethnicities on the basis of religion. They should also be able to reach with a consultation to issue Fatwa that the Jihad in Afghanistan and Pakistan has ended and now is the time reconciliation and repair.
Establish free trade between the counties; Since Saudi Arabia would be joining China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) or also known as one road one belt as the third partner Afghanistan would be a natural fourth partner. Afghanistan should be able to utilize its Highway 1 or A01, formally called the Ring Road

Peace and stability is at hand for the region that is if both Kabul and Islamabad make a honest effort to reach out with third party influence and interference.

Even though Afghanistan does not have the infrastructure to become part of CPASAEC(China Pakistan Afghanistan Saudi Arabia Economic Corridor). Trade between these two countries would help in eradicating the opium cultivation and smuggling that more or fewer effects all four of these countries.

Jungle Bagh, Ghausabad , Saranan Camp, Killi Kamalo, Zamindar Colony, Bashir Chowk 9 (Collective team). One issue that imposed restrictions on the refugees were the local Pakistani authorities orders to arrest and interview any refugee for violating the local laws. Some of the Afghans were known to be involved in drug and human trafficking. Amongst these criminals were members of Taliban leadership who used the UNHCR mandate of immunity of non-violent crimes. These Taliban flourished under this environment, knowing that UNHCR laws for limited legal immunity bound the local Pakistani authorities. It was clear that the former Taliban Chief Mullah Umar took a similar route from Afghanistan to Pakistan. He settled in Karachi’s Maleer Town in the Khokarapar Council area. He resided in a room (classroom) of an abandoned government public school. He was regularly treated for dialysis and other medical conditions at a private hospital. The area he lived his final days, initially, he was seen walking along with three or four Taliban fighters and regularly visited an Afghan food establishment named called Anwar Baloch Hotel.

In this photo Afghani senior Vice President Bdul Rashid Dostum (National Islamic Movement of Afghanistan – is next to Mufti Niamat the leader of The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant – ad-Dawlah al-Islāmiyah fī ‘l-ʿIrāq wa-sh-Shām – Wilayah Khorasan )Khorasan Province. There has been news that both Nimat and Dostom have attacked villages that have been vacated by the Taliban (Pushtoon) and have Shia Afghani populace.

Post-2001 Afghanistan was the epicenter amongst the violent extremist Muslims to gather. Now it is returning to a similar environment. Lack of local governance has to lead the locals to rely on outside help and ideology to get some type of peace and stability. The U.S and NATO have so far failed to provide this. The present policy of using B-52, B-1 dropping such as mother of all the bombs have not helped but rather ingrained in most Afghan are that the US is not there to help but kill. In January 2002, Pew Research had taken a poll in Afghanistan asking if the locals knew why the US and ISAF are in Afghanistan 92% said no and close to 96% didn’t know of the terrorist events of 9/11. In essence, the local Afghani populace is more or less ambivalent as to why were they attack and ponder the reasons these Western soldiers walk in their villages to search for Taliban.

most dangerous issue in Afghanistan is the unabated production of opium and its export. This is the commodity that fueled the Taliban fighting machine and now the Diash has started to take this lucrative trade to fuel its own agenda.

Since the U.S started to use aerial bombing to destroy the local Taliban sanctuaries; the Taliban vacated these places but they have by the Islamic State/Diash people. These Diash unfortunately have found help and accommodations by the warlords like Abdul Rashid Dostum.

Bringing peace and stability, there are lessons to be learned. First and foremost the shifting of the blame should not be used anymore to move forward. The US certainly has failed in many aspects to bring peace and stability to the region. The regional players and their reservations should not be marginalized with the theme like “the only good Taliban is a dead one” and rhetoric stating that failure in Afghanistan means the nuclear weapons of Pakistan are in danger of getting into the hands of terrorists. Looking at the bigger picture, it would be safe to assume that Afghanistan is fast becoming the next staging ground and home base for Daesh/ISIS. With Daesh’s Syrian home base dismantled and destroyed the fighters have started to disperse through the porous borders of Syria, Iraq, Iran into Afghanistan and other Muslim majority countries. With Iran supporting its brand of Shia Proxies like Hizbullah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and other small groups in Afghanistan, Egypt, Pakistan, and North Africa. The threat of violent extremism is not going away but rather will increase in the future. There is no shortage of disgruntled and poor young Muslims who are willing to go and indulge in these violent activities for $75 a month plus a piece of land in Afghanistan, Iran, and their divinely-ordained paradise in the future. The famous cliché for these extremists was once described as “…for an American and NATO Soldier…the tour of duty ends but for these violent extremists the tour never ends but at the gates of Paradise.”

Both the countries are required to ensure that there are borders operate in the cohesion of management and mitigation working with JISRB.

The U.S and other countries are invited to monitor and address any potential threats to JISRB
The crux o JISRB and other security measures are that the sovereign territory of both the countries is never compromised by either of the partners and are used in any form by non-state actors to launch armed attacks anywhere in the world.
Amongst the greatest commons connectivity is the constitution of both Afghanistan and Pakistan. From their preamble and a lot of articles have a lot in commons. Using the constitution of both the countries the religious scholars along with governments in Kabul and Islamabad should be able to develop some type of harmony amongst the two countries. The religious scholars would be able to bridge the gap between different sects amongst the Muslims and even ethnicities on the basis of religion. They should also be able to reach with a consultation to issue Fatwa that the Jihad in Afghanistan and Pakistan has ended and now is the time reconciliation and repair.
Establish free trade between both the counties. Since Saudi Arabia is about joining CPEC as the third partner Afghanistan would be a natural fourth partner.

Fast-forward to January 2018, President Trump on the first day of the New Year tweets the following:

The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies & deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools,

Looking at this sweeping statement, it is clear that President Trump is very frustrated about 17-year-old war in Afghanistan. Because of some abject policy failures, the President decides to use Pakistan as the scapegoat for all the ills and failures of the U.S in Afghanistan.

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